According to the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI data released on March 2nd, in February, Caixin China's manufacturing PMI was 40.3%, setting a low level since the survey began in 2004 and lower than the low point of 40.9% during the 2008 international financial crisis.
A few days ago, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing also released PMI data. In February, affected by the COVID-19, the manufacturing PMI was 35.7%, down 14.3 percentage points from the previous month; The non manufacturing business activity index was 29.6%, a decrease of 24.5 percentage points from the previous month. This set of data also set a historical low.
Both official PMI and private PMI clearly show that the operation of China's manufacturing and non manufacturing industries has slowed down significantly due to the COVID-19. From the data, the impact of the COVID-19 on the current economic operation has exceeded the international financial crisis in 2008.
Let's take a look at the official non manufacturing business activity index. In February, all individual indices of non manufacturing industries decreased. Among them, the new order index and supplier delivery time index have decreased by more than 20 points; The decrease in the employee index and expected business activity index is between 10 to 20 points; The decrease in hand order index, inventory index, input price index, and sales price index is within 10 percentage points. The impact on non manufacturing industries is more pronounced than that on manufacturing. This is because, on the one hand, the demand for consumer industries with strong personnel aggregation, such as transportation, accommodation and catering, tourism, and resident services, has sharply decreased; On the other hand, the production and operation of the construction industry in the whole society is basically in a state of shutdown.
It can be seen that the COVID-19 is the main factor driving the official and private PMI to fall back significantly. From the performance of PMI data in the past two months, it is highly likely that the main indicators of China's economic operation will significantly slow down in the first quarter of this year.
However, do not exaggerate the impact of monthly PMI data too much. The impact of the COVID-19 on economic operation is generally short-term and controllable, and will not change the fundamentals of China's long-term economic growth. With the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation and the continuous efforts of various policy measures, the Chinese economy will definitely return to normal operation.
Why do you say that?
In the short term, the COVID-19 has impacted the operation of different industries to a certain extent, but there has also been a certain degree of differentiation between different industries. The adverse impact of the epidemic on economic operation is not global, nor irreversible. In the manufacturing industry, although the operation of the supply chain has slowed down, market demand and enterprise production have significantly contracted, and the employment situation is also relatively tight. However, with the support of stable production and supply policies, the PMI of industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing, food and beverage refined tea, which ensure the basic living needs of the people, has remained above 42.0%, while the PMI of pharmaceutical manufacturing, which provides health and medical protection, is 39.7%, which is higher than the overall level of the manufacturing industry, The impact is relatively small.
In non manufacturing industries, financial business activities